Public Investment as a Key Driver
In 2025, public investment is identified as one of the main pillars of policy and plays a pivotal role in maintaining economic growth momentum. It is among the top contributing factors to achieving this year’s GDP growth target of 8%.
The 2025 public investment capital plan is set at the highest level in the past five years. Disbursement has been accelerated, accompanied by supporting policies. This creates major opportunities for businesses in infrastructure, construction materials, logistics, and more, opening up a range of promising investment prospects in the stock market.
Despite these positives, global economic volatility remains a concern for investors. Statistics show that by the end of April 2025, 19 out of 32 open-end equity funds had increased their cash holdings, reflecting a continued defensive sentiment. Investment strategies have shifted focus toward businesses' internal strengths rather than relying on unpredictable macro factors. In this context, sectors less affected by trade wars, especially those supported by government policy, are being recommended by experts as preferred investment choices.
Resolution 68-NQ/TW on private economic development creates significant room for enterprises and corporations to grow, serving as a catalyst for a wave of listed businesses. Simultaneously, public investment is being prioritized with a focus on completing key national projects such as 3,000 km of expressways, Ho Chi Minh City Ring Road 3, Hanoi Ring Road 4, 1,000 km of coastal roads, Long Thanh International Airport, Terminal T3 of Tan Son Nhat Airport, Terminal T2 of Noi Bai Airport, Lien Chieu Port, Can Gio Port, the Lao Cai - Hanoi - Hai Phong railway, and new 500 kV transmission lines. These developments provide listed companies with the chance to capitalize on the wave of public investment and government stimulus policies.
Breakthroughs in Infrastructure Development
Infrastructure construction companies are seen as direct beneficiaries of the 2025 public investment wave.
Numerous key projects slated for completion in 2025 will benefit contractors through increased construction contract values and progressive project handovers. After the inauguration of Tan Son Nhat’s Terminal T3, Noi Bai’s new terminal is expected to be completed in Q4/2025. Listed contractors involved in these two projects include ACV and Vinaconex. Other companies such as Refrigeration Electrical Engineering Corporation (REE), Coteccons Construction JSC (CTD), Hoa Binh Construction Group (HBC), Deo Ca Traffic Infrastructure Investment JSC (HHV), and FECON Corporation (FCN) also show strong growth potential due to their participation in large-scale projects like Phase I of Long Thanh Airport, 12 components of the North–South Expressway Phase II, and Ho Chi Minh City Ring Road 3.
For industry giant Vinaconex, although Q1/2025 business results were underwhelming with net revenue and after-tax profit down 2% and 72% YoY respectively, revenue forecasts for 2025 remain positive, driven by its core construction segment.
Vinaconex has continuously secured contracts for major national infrastructure projects, including parts of the North–South Expressway Phase II, Long Thanh Airport Phase I, Noi Bai International Airport, and Ring Road 3. Due to this infrastructure boom, Vinaconex is expected to win bids worth around VND 10,000 – 11,000 billion annually, with business results likely to improve further in the coming years.
Phu Hung Securities analysts estimate Vinaconex’s remaining construction backlog for 2025–2026 to be about 1.8 times the average revenue from 2023–2024, or around VND 15,500 billion, with revenue concentrated mainly in 2025.
Estimated revenue from Vinaconex’s construction segment in 2025 and 2026 is VND 11,200 billion (up 21%) and VND 11,700 billion (up 5%) respectively.
Similarly, Deo Ca Traffic Infrastructure Investment JSC (HHV) holds a large backlog. In 2025, the company will continue executing signed contracts, with key contributions expected from expressway projects like Quang Ngai – Hoai Nhon and Dong Dang – Tra Linh. The estimated revenue from construction in 2025 is VND 1,392.5 billion.
Deo Ca’s consolidated 2025 target is VND 3,584 billion in total revenue and VND 555.62 billion in after-tax profit, representing year-over-year growth of 8% and 12% respectively.
Its 2025–2027 construction backlog is estimated at VND 3,800 billion, 3.5 times the average revenue from 2023–2024. Profit recognition from construction is expected mainly in 2025–2026.
This company has also secured contracts for major projects like Long Thanh Airport Phase I, various North–South Expressway components, Ring Road 3, and the Khanh Hoa – Buon Ma Thuot Expressway Phase I.
According to Mr. To Dinh Hien Vien, an expert at Phu Hung Securities, the public investment sector is still expected to be a main growth pillar for 2025–2026. Stock price trends in this sector historically align with public investment policies. For 2025, Phu Hung Securities sees parallels to 2020, a year of accelerated public investment disbursement in the final year of the medium-term five-year plan. Additionally, easing legal bottlenecks in investment laws is expected to boost investor confidence and contribute to a revaluation of public investment stocks.
Wider Ripple Effects
Accelerated public investment disbursement is expected to ripple through to other sectors such as construction materials, electrical infrastructure, real estate, and logistics.
For construction material companies, the post-site clearance phase and start of construction are when consumption rises. According to the Ministry of Construction, materials account for about 70% of total project implementation costs in public investment projects such as roads and bridges. Key materials include construction steel (25%), sand and stone (20%), and asphalt (15%).
This creates significant advantages for leading construction material firms such as Hoa Phat Group (HPG) — the largest rebar steel producer, Petrolimex Petrochemical Corporation (PLC) for asphalt, Vicem Ha Tien Cement JSC (HT1) for cement, and Bien Hoa Building Materials & Construction JSC (VLB) for stone mining.
In other sectors, Agriseco (Agribank Securities) experts note that electrical infrastructure construction will also benefit directly as the government ramps up energy infrastructure to ensure energy security, support economic growth, attract FDI, and enhance national competitiveness. Key projects include the 500 kV transmission line (third circuit). Amid infrastructure development and limited supply, the government is issuing supportive policies such as the 2024 Electricity Law implementation decree, Power Development Plan VIII adjustment, revival of the Ninh Thuan nuclear power project, and promotion of renewable energy, LNG, and offshore wind power projects.
The logistics sector also stands to benefit indirectly from improved infrastructure driven by public investment. Completed expressways will facilitate logistics operations, becoming a catalyst for economic growth and foreign investment attraction. The seaport and airport sectors are expected to benefit early from mega airport and seaport projects such as Long Thanh International Airport, Tan Son Nhat and Noi Bai expansions, Lach Huyen, Cai Mep – Thi Vai, and Can Gio International Transshipment Port. As a result, freight and passenger transport companies via sea and air will benefit from rising cargo volume and utilization rates.
Despite the potential, businesses will still face challenges such as global economic uncertainties, legal and land clearance hurdles, and price volatility in raw materials.
Nevertheless, the current public investment wave offers a golden opportunity for enterprises. With the government’s determination and bold institutional reforms, 2025 is poised to be a breakthrough year for listed companies participating in national key projects.
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